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Opposite to the cliche, System 1 testing can inform you some issues concerning the upcoming season.
However we’ve got to attend till qualifying and the grand prix on the season opener till the ten F1 groups put all their playing cards on the desk.
So what are the most important unknowns looming over the Bahrain Grand Prix and the 2024 season as an entire?
We requested our writers for his or her solutions.
How large will Crimson Bull’s benefit be?
Regardless of Ferrari being quickest on the pre-season check and posting some encouraging long-run occasions, all with the assumption that it was not operating at 100%, it was Crimson Bull that all people thought-about (and nonetheless considers) the pre-season favorite.
Put merely, the expectation is that Crimson Bull held extra again than anyone else. What we don’t know is how a lot. So the apparent query going into the season is how large will Crimson Bull’s benefit actually be?
Inside which are some smaller however nonetheless necessary sub-sections. Will the automobile have a much bigger race day benefit than in qualifying once more? In that case, may it’s susceptible on Saturday and will others have improved their very own efficiency sufficient to really capitalise on a greater grid place on Sunday?
And is that this automobile one which solely Max Verstappen can get essentially the most out of persistently or will Sergio Perez keep away from the problems of 2023, making it extra of a battle even when in staff phrases it’s a one-horse once more?
Even within the near-certainty of Crimson Bull having a bonus firstly of the season there’s sufficient conserving us guessing to take care of intrigue for now. – Scott Mitchell-Malm
Is Ferrari’s race tempo actually on a ‘totally different planet’ now?
Fred Vasseur described the Ferrari’s tyre degradation throughout Bahrain testing as being ‘on one other planet higher’ than final 12 months. The numbers truly bear this out.
On the ultimate day of final 12 months, Carlos Sainz’s 10-lap run on C3 tyres began out within the low 1m39s and inside 9 laps he was doing 1m40.2s, together with his final lap a 1m41.0s.
This 12 months on the ultimate day, Charles Leclerc did a 15-lap run on the C3s, starting with a 1m37.1s and ending it with a 1m38.4s. Perhaps not fairly like-for-like concerning gas degree, however this 12 months Leclerc goes 50% longer for the same degree of deg. Will it translate to the race weekend? – Mark Hughes
The place does Mercedes actually stand?
Everybody at Mercedes is definite that the W15 is a automobile that it may possibly work with, giving the drivers confidence and making a platform that can reply to ongoing improvement. What isn’t fully clear is strictly the place it’s within the pecking order.
Testing instructed it was in good condition, near Ferrari on long-run tempo.
Nonetheless, it didn’t full a full-blow race simulation. Likewise, the staff admits to having extra work to do on its single-lap tempo. Having digested the teachings of the three days of check operating, we should always no less than get to see what it may possibly do.
Offered Mercedes is thereabouts with Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin, it must be in good condition for the 12 months forward. The important thing was at all times that it had a steady, constant platform to construct from.
However in fact, that is Mercedes, and there’s at all times the chance that after two years of disagreeable adverse surprises there could also be some sudden difficulties that imply issues won’t be nearly as good as they regarded.
No matter occurs, we’ll know what its baseline is for 2024 and due to this fact what the possibilities are of it with the ability to develop shortly sufficient to emerge as a Crimson Bull risk sooner or later. – Edd Straw
How a lot hassle is Alpine in?
The season goes to start out badly for Alpine, however Bahrain will reveal simply how far off it’s. If testing is something to go by, a Q1 exit may very well be on that playing cards.
That’s actually not adequate for a works staff, even one which has been at pains to handle expectations. The automobile is obese, doesn’t look good on monitor and each drivers have made it clear they count on a sluggish begin.
Can it actually be that dangerous? It’s potential Alpine has extra efficiency to unlock having spent the check specializing in understanding the revised mechanical platform it considers to be the guts of its new idea. However that’s unlikely to imply a step change in tempo.
If Alpine actually will not be solely within the again group, however in direction of the again of it, that can pile on the strain. There have been indicators of progress trackside because the center of final 12 months, however that received’t be sufficient if it’s constructed a automobile that isn’t as much as it.
Bahrain will reveal the complete extent of Alpine’s hassle. – ES
Is McLaren lastly prepared to start out a season strongly?
McLaren has failed to start out both season on this set of laws with a robust consequence. And it should be linked to how its automobile has carried out, early on within the season no less than, on this ruleset.
McLaren’s truly point-less within the final two season openers. However expectations are totally different this time round.
In every of the 2 years previous to the 2022 overhaul, Lando Norris completed fourth in Bahrain. It might most likely take that consequence fairly fortunately this time round.
McLaren scored a number of podiums as 2023 went on and has expressed confidence in sustaining its improvement curve within the low season.
Some particular weaknesses appear to stay although, or no less than want a bit extra time – and a few extra upgrades – to be addressed, leaving the staff with a lingering deficit within the slow-speed corners.
McLaren’s nonetheless speaking about this not being a monitor that fits its automobile ideally although it desires to make it extra of an all-rounder.
But when there’s a little bit of Bahrain-specific vulnerability the staff ought to no less than be beginning the 12 months in a greater place general. – SMM
How large a step ahead has RB taken?
The staff with the most important hope of escaping final 12 months’s four-way again of the grid scrap is RB.
Crimson Bull’s rebranded second staff had a quietly stellar pre-season check, however simply how a lot progress has it made?
The reply hinges on whether or not it may possibly threaten Aston Martin and snipe on the heels of the highest 4 groups or whether or not it is merely firmly on the head of a cast-off second half of the grid.
And if the RB is a midfield chief, will that enhance criticism of its nearer relationship with Crimson Bull, given the tirade – led largely by McLaren CEO Zak Brown – in opposition to co-ownership and A/B staff relationships?
The VCARB 01 did not resemble the all-conquering RB19 practically as a lot as some thought it could, however that alone is not going to quash complaints.
RB seems the staff most able to breaking freed from the again of the grid this 12 months, however you possibly can’t depend out Williams’s ‘late automobile’ gamble paying dividends (though you’d suspect the advantages of that shall be higher felt later within the 12 months).
Sauber confirmed a powerful flip of pace too on the ultimate day of testing – although doubtless low-fuel assisted – and Haas and Alpine have each set expectations of a sluggish begin. – Josh Suttill
What is the state of the 2025 foolish season?
Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari bombshell has already kicked 2025 foolish season into overdrive and our first correct have a look at the 2024 aggressive pecking order will additional form the motive force market.
That is as a result of the Bahrain GP will inform drivers whether or not they’re in for a 12 months of ache (prefer it did for Hamilton and George Russell at Mercedes final 12 months) or whether or not there’s good cause to place pen to paper with their present groups as quickly as potential.
For instance Alex Albon, a possible goal for a number of groups regardless of being below contract at Williams, shall be measuring the competitiveness of his new automobile versus his different potential 2025 locations with nice curiosity.
A return to Crimson Bull may very well be a possible touchdown spot for him, however which will depend upon whether or not Sergio Perez clicks with the RB20 in a method he did not with the RB19 for 3 quarters of the season. It may additionally select Daniel Ricciardo from RB to exchange Perez.
The competitiveness of the Aston Martin could resolve whether or not Fernando Alonso holds out for Hamilton’s Mercedes seat or commits to Aston.
Hamilton himself could come to both remorse or relish his Ferrari transfer primarily based on its relative competitiveness. He’ll discover out whether or not he is bought a Mercedes adequate for a starring farewell.
Additional down the grid, Kevin Magnussen, who struggled with final 12 months’s automobile traits, felt progress in pre-season with a VF-24 that he may belief “from braking to turn-in to mid-corner”.
Whether or not that materialises shall be essential for his future, with the likes of Ferrari protege Ollie Bearman circling his seat for 2025. – JS
How lengthy will Horner saga grasp over Crimson Bull?
In a literal sense, the ‘Horner saga’ could also be over by the point you learn this – as a choice on his future is reported in some quarters, together with from Sky Sports activities, to be approaching Wednesday earlier than the Bahrain GP.
We don’t know whether or not Horner would be the staff principal come race weekend weekend and what impression his staying or leaving might need.
However one factor we do know is that Crimson Bull is coming off the again of one of the crucial dominant years in F1 historical past the place it arguably constructed the sequence’ best-ever automobile. And such is its quest for greatness, it’s mainly overhauled that design for this season in a bid to ensure it stays forward.
So it doesn’t really feel like its on-track efficiency shall be affected by this case within the short-term.
It’s the longer-term fallout that can actually be the factor to observe right here. – Jack Benyon
Will following be higher or worse this 12 months?
Basically, the extra aerodynamically efficient the automobiles grow to be, the much less straightforward it is going to be to comply with intently.
Particularly, we’re seeing some developments – such because the Mercedes entrance wing with its half-width prime flap – which look designed to create a better outwash.
This doesn’t at all times imply a extra turbulent wake, nevertheless it fairly often does. There’s nothing to recommend following goes to be an entire step change worse; it’s extra more likely to be levels. – MH
The place is the following FIA/F1 conflict coming from?
Andretti being accepted by the FIA for an F1 entry, after which being denied by F1 itself, is simply the highest-profile occasion of the friction between the championship and the governing physique in latest occasions.
It’s clear that many individuals need extra groups on the F1 grid however, contemplating how tough it has been, it’s arduous to think about we’ll see a brand new staff earlier than the following engine guidelines cycle except Andretti provides F1’s current groups – defending their slice of the prize cash pie – no selection however to just accept it.
It seems like one other conflict between the FIA and F1 is a matter of if, and never when. There’s actually friction between F1 and FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem over the hands-on strategy he is taken throughout his tenure and a number of the resolution making that has been on show.
The following dispute by no means feels distant given latest friction. – JB
Will these automobiles preserve breaking drain covers?
After two stoppages throughout the check, and contemplating final 12 months’s controversial Las Vegas GP injury and disruption, it has been requested if this technology of automobiles will preserve breaking drain covers and inflicting issues.
Some circuits are older than others and have totally different buildings in place round these components of the monitor floor (or past it). Perhaps some usually are not as strong as they was once, perhaps there are some weaknesses being uncovered greater than earlier than.
However we all know these automobiles are larger, heavier and produce extra downforce from beneath than at any time in latest historical past. So, the monitor surfaces are being uncovered to extra violent forces than earlier than.
And within the case of Bahrain, the automobiles are utilizing totally different components of the monitor too. We’re within the third 12 months of those guidelines, automobile compliance seems higher than ever, and downforce ranges are growing – so drivers can get away with utilizing extra run-off space and flat(ish) kerbs on entry as a result of the automobile isn’t as unsettled as it could have been beforehand.
Regardless of the trigger, it wants shut consideration and correct options, just like the drastic but additionally pragmatic ‘rip the drain out and fill it with concrete’ repair in Bahrain. – SMM
