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Mariners setup males Matt Brash and Gregory Santos had been each shut down last week on account of arm troubles, and whereas it seems there’s excellent news on one, the outlook on the opposite is ominous. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that Santos performed catch yesterday and is starting a throwing development, however Brash is doubtlessly dealing with an “in depth” absence. There’s some concern that Brash’s complete 2024 season could also be in jeopardy, per Divish.
An absence of even reasonable size for Brash can be a essential blow for the Mariners, who acquired the hard-throwing righty in a heist of a trade with the Padres and have since watched him blossom right into a high prospect and doubtlessly elite reliever. Brash’s 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings final season is a formidable mark by itself, however that quantity doesn’t appropriately spotlight some off-the-charts secondary metrics and a sensational four-month end to shut out the 2023 season.
Whilst Brash posted a pedestrian 4.28 ERA by way of the season’s first two months, he was hanging out a staggering 39.8% of his opponents in opposition to a good 8.9% stroll price. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.34) had been far, much more bullish on his work than his extra rudimentary ERA.
These numbers certainly proved a portent for a breakout. From Memorial Day weekend by way of season’s finish, Brash turned in a sensational 2.36 ERA. His strikeout price in that point clocked in at 32.4% in opposition to a 9.7% stroll price. Brash averaged a blistering 98.2 mph on his heater, generated swinging strikes at a hefty 15.4% clip and induced chases off the plate at a 33.6% price — all whereas retaining the ball on the bottom at a strong 44.4% clip. He completed the season with 4 saves and one other 24 holds. Skeptics might need to see him maintain that over a full season or two, however that overpowering stretch had all of the traits of one in all MLB’s greatest relievers.
Sadly, it appears Brash may not get the chance to show he can maintain that breakout for a while. Neither the group nor the participant himself has offered any specifics as to the character of the arm harm with which he’s dealing. Brash downplayed the problem final week, telling Divish and others that he’s merely “banged up,” whereas GM Justin Hollander merely acknowledged that the hope was for Brash to return to a throwing program ahead of later. The shortage of any actual element on the harm appeared foreboding on the time.
If the 25-year-old Brash is certainly going to be sidelined for a considerable portion — or, far worse, everything — of the 2024 marketing campaign, a robust Mariners bullpen will take an unequivocal hit. Seattle relievers had been fourth within the Majors with a 3.48 ERA final season and led the massive leagues with a 3.64 SIERA. Brash performed a significant half, as did the since-traded Justin Topa, who went to the Twins as a part of the Jorge Polanco deal.
The shock acquisition of Santos late within the offseason helped to compensate for Topa’s departure, however a significant harm for Brash can be troublesome to beat. His manufacturing all through the summer time and down the stretch in 2023 merely isn’t the kind of efficiency that may be readily changed.
The Mariners would nonetheless have one of many recreation’s greatest relievers, Andres Munoz, closing out video games. Santos would headline a setup corps additionally that includes Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo — all of whom posted strong numbers in 2023 however have minimal massive league monitor data.
There’s additionally nonetheless not less than one notable reliever in free company (Ryne Stanek), and the Mariners have had maybe extra success than any group in MLB at changing unheralded waiver pickups and minor league signees into influence relievers lately. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired within the Eugenio Suarez commerce, is one power-armed candidate for such a breakout in Seattle. None of that takes away from the magnitude of a notable Brash harm, and at this stage of the offseason, the choices to make a transfer to counteract such a major loss are restricted.
