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FORECAST – GOLD, EUR/USD, NASDAQ 100
- The Fed held borrowing prices unchanged and continued to point it will ship three fee cuts this 12 months
- The dovish coverage outlook weighed on the U.S. dollar and yields, boosting gold prices and the Nasdaq 100
- This text examines the technical outlook for XAU/USD, EUR/USD and the NDX
Most Learn: Fed Holds Rates Steady, 2024 Policy Outlook Unchanged – What Now?
U.S. shares and gold prices rallied whereas the U.S. greenback skidded decrease on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve caught to the script and largely maintained the identical coverage outlook embraced three months in the past within the earlier Abstract of Financial Projections, shrugging off firming value pressures within the financial system.
For context, the FOMC stored borrowing prices at their present ranges at its March gathering, reaffirming its intention to implement 75 foundation factors of easing in 2024. Wall Street, fearing a hawkish final result within the face of rising inflation dangers, breathed a sigh of aid on the establishment’s restrained response.
Whereas there have been some hawkish parts within the Fed’s steerage, such because the upward revision to the long-run equilibrium fee, merchants selected to deal with the near-term future and the truth that the easing cycle is inching nearer and looming on the horizon.
With all that mentioned, the primary takeaway from the FOMC assembly was this: nothing has actually modified for the central financial institution; plans to chop charges this 12 months stay on observe and the method to gradual the tempo of quantitative tightening is quickly approaching, with Powell saying tapering might begin “pretty quickly”.
Making an allowance for at the moment’s developments, bond yields will battle to maneuver a lot increased within the close to time period, particularly if incoming financial information begins cooperating with policymakers. This might stop the U.S. greenback from extending its rebound within the coming days and weeks.
In the meantime, threat property and treasured metals corresponding to gold and silver could possibly be higher positioned to keep up upward momentum heading into the second quarter. This might probably imply contemporary all-time highs for each gold and the Nasdaq 100.
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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold surged on Wednesday, breaking previous its earlier report and notching a brand new all-time excessive above $2,220. With bulls seemingly accountable for the market, a possible transfer in the direction of trendline resistance at $2,225 is conceivable. On additional power, a rally above $2,250 can’t be dominated out.
Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and pullback, assist looms at $2,195, the swing excessive from early March. Beneath this degree, consideration will flip to $2,150, adopted by $2,090. Bulls should vigorously defend this technical flooring; failure to take action will expose the 50-day easy shifting common at $2,065.
GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART
Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView
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NASDAQ 100 FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Nasdaq 100 climbed sharply on Wednesday in response to the Fed’s dovish outlook, coming inside hanging distance from retesting its all-time excessive close to 18,690. Merchants ought to intently monitor this technical ceiling as a breakout might pave the best way for a rally towards trendline resistance at 19,175.
On the flip aspect, if market sentiment shifts again in favor of sellers and costs start to appropriate decrease, preliminary assist will emerge at 18,150. Beneath this threshold, the highlight can be on 17,805, a key degree that at the moment coincides with the 50-day easy shifting common.
NASDAQ 100 CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView
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| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -30% | 16% | -8% |
| Weekly | -8% | -10% | -9% |
EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday, with bulls seemingly decided to problem trendline resistance at 1.0950 after the FOMC announcement. Within the occasion of a retest, sellers might want to fend off the advance; in any other case, there can be minimal obstacles to a rally in the direction of 1.0970, a key Fibonacci degree.
Alternatively, if upside strain begins to fade and sellers spark a bearish reversal, assist will be recognized at 1.0890, adopted by 1.0850, the place an ascending trendline converges with the 50-day and 100-day shifting averages.
