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Viking goals to compete with injectable medicine from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Their therapies sparked the burden loss drug business gold rush over the previous yr regardless of their hefty worth tags and limitations to insurance coverage protection.
Some Wall Avenue analysts stated Viking’s experimental weight problems therapy could also be “best-in-class.” In a midstage trial, an injectable model of Viking’s drug appeared to advertise even higher weight reduction than Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.
Viking gave a primary glimpse at information from that research on Tuesday, and its shares soared 120%. The promising outcomes make the corporate a formidable potential participant in a market that may doubtless have room for extra entrants within the coming years.
Goldman Sachs projects that between 10 million and 70 million Individuals might be taking weight reduction medicine by 2028. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have additionally struggled to supply sufficient provide of their therapies, giving different firms an opportunity to win market share.
The brand new information additionally makes Viking a extra enticing deal goal for bigger firms attempting to interrupt into the house or broaden their weight problems therapy choices.
It is too early to say whether or not Viking’s drug may have an edge over current or growing weight reduction therapies. It is tough to check therapies with out pitting them face to face in the identical scientific trial.
Viking additionally must conduct a late-stage research on its drug, and certain will not launch the injection till the later a part of the last decade. The small firm faces hurdles to coming into the market, resembling manufacturing sufficient of the drug to fulfill booming demand. However an acquisition by a bigger firm may assist remedy a few of these points.
Viking’s section two trial adopted greater than 170 sufferers who’re obese or overweight. They obtained completely different dose sizes of the injectable drug or a placebo.
The trial didn’t instantly evaluate Viking’s therapy to different medicine. Nonetheless, many analysts in contrast Viking’s injection to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, largely as a result of they work the identical approach.
An injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight reduction drug, is displayed in New York Metropolis on Dec. 11, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Each medicine imitate two naturally produced intestine hormones known as GLP-1 and GIP. GLP helps cut back meals consumption and urge for food. GIP, which additionally suppresses urge for food, may additionally enhance how the physique breaks down sugar and fats.
In the meantime, Novo Nordisk’s weight reduction injection Wegovy solely targets GLP-1.
Analysts had been significantly impressed by the burden sufferers misplaced after they took the very best dose of Viking’s drug. Those that obtained a weekly 15 milligram dose of the therapy misplaced 13.1% of their physique weight on common after 13 weeks in comparison with those that took the placebo.
Notably, there was no proof of a plateau in weight discount at week 13 for any dose of the drug. That implies that “additional weight reduction could be achieved” by conserving sufferers on the therapy longer, Viking CEO Brian Lian stated throughout a name with buyers on Tuesday.
Viking’s drug information reveals a “best-in-class profile” amongst each authorized and experimental weight reduction medicine with section two trials, William Blair analyst Andy Hsieh wrote in a word Tuesday. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound generated roughly 7% weight reduction relative to a placebo after 12 weeks in a section three scientific trial, Hsieh famous.
Viking’s drug additionally seems to high Novo Nordisk’s weight reduction injection Wegovy, in keeping with a separate Tuesday word from BTIG analysts.
Primarily based on chart information from a phase three trial, the analysts estimated that Wegovy precipitated round 5% weight reduction at 13 weeks in comparison with a placebo.
In the meantime, a number of analysts estimated that some doses of Eli Lilly’s experimental injection, retatrutide, precipitated between 9% and 13% weight reduction relative to a placebo at 13 weeks primarily based on chart information from a midstage trial.
The vast majority of adversarial unwanted effects that sufferers skilled after beginning Viking’s drug had been gentle or reasonable. A lot of these situations had been gastrointestinal, which is frequent throughout all weight reduction and diabetes therapies.
Round 20% of sufferers who took the 15 milligram model of Viking’s drug discontinued therapy early within the research. That compares with round 14% of these taking the placebo who stopped early within the trial.
However Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari wrote in a word Tuesday that Viking’s trial used quicker “titration” in sufferers. That refers to growing the dose measurement a affected person takes over time till they attain a goal dosage degree.
He stated Viking could possibly make its drug simpler for sufferers to tolerate in a future trial with slower titration, which may doubtlessly decrease the therapy’s efficacy.
Regardless of the compelling information, Viking has much more work to do earlier than it may possibly compete within the weight reduction drug market.
The corporate plans to fulfill with the U.S. Meals and Drug Administration later this yr to debate a scientific growth plan for the therapy.
Viking CEO Brian Lian instructed buyers on a name Tuesday that the corporate will doubtless conduct one other section two trial that might final six to 9 months.
Jefferies’ Tewari estimates that Viking’s therapy will not attain the market till 2029 or later. A late-stage trial on the drug might be prolonged. Eli Lilly’s section three research on Zepbound lasted two and a half to 3 years.
The late entrance of Viking’s drug is one cause why Tewari would not imagine the corporate will meaningfully reduce into Eli Lilly’s market.
The pharmaceutical large may additionally launch a slate of different weight reduction therapies over the following few years that will have benefits over Zepbound, whether or not they supply extra weight reduction or comfort. They embrace Eli Lilly’s experimental capsule orforglipron and the broadly watched retatrutide, which mimics three intestine hormones as a substitute of two.
An Eli Lilly and Firm pharmaceutical manufacturing plant is pictured in Branchburg, New Jersey, on March 5, 2021.
Mike Segar | Reuters
Analysts from Deutsche Financial institution added in a word Tuesday that manufacturing the therapies “at scale to fulfill outsized demand has confirmed to be no straightforward feat.” They stated that provides Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk a “defensive moat” towards rivals.
Viking acknowledged this hurdle on the decision Tuesday. Lian stated the corporate has sufficient provide of the drug to help its scientific trials, however its manufacturing capability is inadequate for a business rollout.
However Lian famous that the corporate is “spending numerous time” evaluating a number of manufacturing processes to grasp “what’s quickest, what’s highest yielding, what’s least expensive and what’s most scalable.”
Viking’s spectacular information may make it a gorgeous goal for a takeover or partnership with a big pharmaceutical firm. That might give Viking the business and manufacturing capabilities wanted to compete within the weight reduction drug market.
William Blair’s Hsieh added that giant pharmaceutical firms may maximize the worth of Viking’s therapy as a result of they might higher navigate the rebate and reimbursement panorama for weight reduction medicine.
Some analysts anticipate different firms to have excessive curiosity in Viking.
“This very nicely might be on the procuring checklist for any large-cap pharma or biotech firm that desires to be within the weight problems market however at the moment would not have a drug. There are many them on the market,” Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson instructed CNBC.
He added that an organization may “pay a fairly important premium for Viking and decide this up … for a comparatively low worth in comparison with the potential that exists for a drug like this.” As of Friday, Viking had a market cap of greater than $8.5 billion.
Injection pens of Novo Nordisk’s weight reduction drug Wegovy are proven on this photograph in Oslo, Norway, on Nov. 21, 2023.
Victoria Klesty | Reuters
Viking is an interesting deal goal due to extra than simply the brand new information. Wall Avenue is raring for the corporate to launch early-stage trial outcomes on an oral model of its weight reduction therapy this quarter.
The BTIG analysts famous that the mental property protection for each variations of the drug extends past 2040, “boding nicely” for potential partnership discussions.
Viking additionally has different medicine in growth, together with a promising oral therapy for a sure type of liver illness. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and different drugmakers are additionally racing to see whether or not their medicine can deal with that very same situation.
Viking hasn’t disclosed any particulars about its discussions with potential companions. However the firm has “at all times been open to accomplice discussions since day one, so we’re at all times opportunistically evaluating no matter is introduced to us,” Lian stated throughout Viking’s fourth-quarter earnings name final month.
Different drugmakers have pursued offers over the previous yr to carve out an area within the weight reduction drug market.
Swiss firm Roche stated it will buy the privately held U.S. weight problems drugmaker Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion. AstraZeneca signed a licensing agreement with Chinese language biotech firm Eccogene to develop an weight problems capsule.
Even Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have snapped up smaller weight problems drug firms this yr to keep up their dominance out there.
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