Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Second Estimate)

Actual gross home product (GDP) elevated at an annual fee of three.2 p.c within the fourth quarter of 2023 (desk 1), in response to the “second” estimate launched by the Bureau of Financial Evaluation. Within the third quarter, actual GDP elevated 4.9 p.c.

The GDP estimate launched at present is predicated on extra full supply knowledge than have been accessible for the “advance” estimate issued final month. Within the advance estimate, the rise in actual GDP was 3.3 p.c. The replace primarily mirrored a downward revision to non-public stock funding that was partly offset by upward revisions to state and native authorities spending and client spending (check with “Updates to GDP”).

The rise in actual GDP mirrored will increase in client spending, exports, state and native authorities spending, nonresidential mounted funding, federal authorities spending, and residential mounted funding that have been partly offset by a lower in non-public stock funding. Imports, that are a subtraction within the calculation of GDP, elevated (desk 2).

In comparison with the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in actual GDP within the fourth quarter primarily mirrored a downturn in non-public stock funding and slowdowns in federal authorities spending, residential mounted funding, and client spending. Imports decelerated.

Present‑greenback GDP elevated 4.9 p.c at an annual fee, or $334.5 billion, within the fourth quarter to a degree of $27.94 trillion, an upward revision of $5.8 billion from the earlier estimate (tables 1 and three). Extra info on the supply knowledge that underlie the estimates is obtainable within the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s web site.

The value index for gross home purchases elevated 1.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, the identical as within the earlier estimate. The private consumption expenditures (PCE) value index elevated 1.8 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 share level. Excluding meals and vitality costs, the PCE value index elevated 2.1 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 share level.

Private Revenue

Present-dollar private revenue elevated $219.5 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $5.4 billion from the earlier estimate. The rise primarily mirrored will increase in compensation, private revenue receipts on property, and proprietors’ revenue that have been partly offset by a lower in private present switch receipts (desk 8).

Disposable private revenue elevated $202.5 billion, or 4.0 p.c, within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $9.2 billion from the earlier estimate. Actual disposable private revenue elevated 2.2 p.c, a downward revision of 0.3 share level.

Private saving was $809.2 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $22.4 billion from the earlier estimate. The private saving fee—private saving as a share of disposable private revenue—was 3.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 share level.

Updates to GDP

With the second estimate, downward revisions to non-public stock funding and federal authorities spending have been partly offset by upward revisions to state and native authorities spending, client spending, residential mounted funding, nonresidential mounted funding, and exports. Imports have been revised up. For extra info, check with the Technical Note. For info on updates to GDP, check with the “Extra Info” part that follows.

Updates to Third-Quarter Wages and Salaries

Along with presenting up to date estimates for the fourth quarter, at present’s launch presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, private taxes, and contributions for presidency social insurance coverage, primarily based on up to date knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries at the moment are estimated to have elevated $184.2 billion within the third quarter, an upward revision of $23.0 billion. Private present taxes at the moment are estimated to have elevated $61.5 billion, an upward revision of $8.9 billion. Contributions for presidency social insurance coverage at the moment are estimated to have elevated $23.2 billion, an upward revision of $3.0 billion. With the incorporation of those new knowledge, actual gross home revenue is now estimated to have elevated 1.9 p.c within the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 share level from the beforehand revealed estimate.

GDP for 2023

Actual GDP elevated 2.5 p.c in 2023 (from the 2022 annual degree to the 2023 annual degree), in contrast with a rise of 1.9 p.c in 2022 (desk 1). The rise in actual GDP in 2023 primarily mirrored will increase in client spending, nonresidential mounted funding, state and native authorities spending, exports, and federal authorities spending that have been partly offset by decreases in residential mounted funding and personal stock funding. Imports decreased (desk 2).

Present-dollar GDP elevated 6.3 p.c, or $1.61 trillion, in 2023 to a degree of $27.36 trillion, in contrast with a rise of 9.1 p.c, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 (tables 1 and three).

The value index for gross home purchases elevated 3.4 p.c in 2023, in contrast with a rise of 6.8 p.c in 2022 (desk 4). The PCE value index elevated 3.7 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 6.5 p.c. Excluding meals and vitality costs, the PCE value index elevated 4.1 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.2 p.c.

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, actual GDP elevated 3.1 p.c throughout the interval (desk 5), in contrast with a rise of 0.7 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022.

The value index for gross home purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, elevated 2.4 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 6.2 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The PCE value index elevated 2.8 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.9 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding meals and vitality, the PCE value index elevated 3.2 p.c, in contrast with a rise of 5.1 p.c.

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Subsequent launch, March 28, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Home Product (Third Estimate)
Company Earnings
Gross Home Product by Trade
Fourth Quarter 2023 and Yr 2023